Who are the participants who constitute the Internet?
• Users - connected to the net and interacting with it
• The communications lines and the communications equipment
• The intermediaries (e.g. the suppliers of on-line information or access providers).
• Hardware manufacturers
• Software authors and manufacturers (browsers, site development tools, specific applications, smart agents, search engines and others).
• The "Hitchhikers" (search engines, smart agents, Artificial Intelligence - AI - tools and more)
• Content producers and providers
• Suppliers of financial wherewithal (currently - corporate and institutional cash gradually being replaced by advertising money)
The fate of each of these components - separately and in solidarity - will determine the fate of the Internet.
The first phase of the Internet's history was dominated by computer wizards. Thus, any attempt at predicting its future dealt mainly with its hardware and software components.
Media experts, sociologists, psychologists, advertising and marketing executives were left out of the collective effort to determine the future face of the Internet.
As far as content is concerned, the Internet cannot be currently defined as a medium. It does not function as one - rather it is a very disordered library, mostly incorporating the writings of non-distinguished megalomaniacs. It is the ultimate Narcissistic experience. The forceful entry of publishing houses and content aggregators is changing this dismal landscape, though.
Ever since the invention of television there hasn't been anything as begging to become a medium as the Internet.
Three analogies spring to mind when contemplating the Internet in its current state:
• A chaotic library
• A neural network or the latter day equivalent of previous networks (telegraph, telephony, railways)
• A new continent
These metaphors prove to be very useful (even business-wise). They permit us to define the commercial opportunities embedded in the Internet.
Yet, they fail to assist us in predicting its future in its transformation into a medium.
How does an invention become a medium? What happens to it when it does become one? What is the thin line separating the initial functioning of the invention from its transformation into a new medium? In other words: when can we tell that some technological advance gave birth to a new medium?
This work also deals with the image of the Internet once transformed into a medium.
The Internet has the most unusual attributes in the history of media.
It has no central structure or organization. It is hardware and software independent. It (almost) cannot be subjected to legislation or to regulation. Consider the example of downloading music from the internet - is it tantamount to an act of recording music (a violation of copyright laws)? This has been the crux of the legal battle between Diamond Multimedia (the manufacturers of the Rio MP3 device), MP3.com and Napster and the recording industry in America.
The Internet's data transfer channels are not linear - they are random. Most of its "broadcast" cannot be "received" at all. It allows for the narrowest of narrowcasting through the use of e-mail mailing lists, discussion groups, message boards, private radio stations, and chats. And this is but a small portion of an impressive list of oddities. These idiosyncrasies will also shape the nature of the Internet as a medium. Growing out of bizarre roots - it is bound to yield strange fruit as a medium.
So what business opportunities does the Internet represent?
I believe that they are to be found in two broad categories:
• Software and hardware related to the Internet's future as a medium
• Content creation, management and licencing
Source : Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.
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